In December a study “Five Security Scenarios on Russian War in Ukraine for 2024-2025: Implications and Policy Recommendations to Western Partners” was published, done by key authors Iuliia Osmolovska, Volodymyr Havrylov and Hennadiy Maksak. This study, funded by the European Union, researched five scenarios and top 10 Factors with the most crucial impact on the security situation, with comparison with drivers of scenarios 2022/23. It is a continuation of the previous work done on scenario building in November 2022 with a foresight analysis of potential short- and medium-term security developments in Ukraine and their further implications for European and global security.

In relevant approach, authors have combined the elements of foresight, expert survey, brainstorming, and desk research to map possible transformations and changes in Ukraine’s security environment. Forty-one influential Ukrainian experts, including ARC’s representative, professor Borys Babin, have selected the top ten factors among 58 suggested for consideration, various developments of which drive different scenarios. This helped to project various positive and negative options for the transformation of Ukraine’s security situation in 2024 and 2025. Study reminds, among other issues, on situaiton that must made Russian fleet to leave its bases in the occupied Crimea and describe issues of military control over the seas around Crimea and the adjacent coasts of Ukraine’s mainland.

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